Prometheus Podcast

EPB Research: Assessing The Path To Recession

We were joined by @EPBResearch, to assess the path to recession.
Find the show notes below:
Part 1 (0:00 - 30:00) - Framework of Investment, Definitions of Leading, Lagging & Co-incident indicators, Business Cycle & Cyclical Economy Constituents, Construction & Multi-Family Homes, Unemployment Trajectory, Fiscal Impact of Hiking
Part 2 (30:00 - 53:00) - Corporate Profits, Current Mispricing, Drawbacks with Recession Dating, Inflation Projection, Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Pricing
 
Follow both @prometheusmacro and @EPBResearch on Twitter for more. If you enjoyed this discussion, make sure to let us know in the comments below, Finally, if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe. 

Warren Pies: On Macro & Markets

We were joined by @Warrenpies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research to discuss macro & markets.
Find the show notes below:
Part 1 (0:00 - 23:00) - Learnings from 2023 H1, Framework for Recession, Fading Pessimism, Economic Activity in H2, Characteristics of Current Fiscal Deficit, Non-Residential Investments
Part 2 (23:00 - 53:00) - Inflation Outlook & Oil Price Forecast, Transportation Sales & Inventories, Pricing in Markets vs. Evolution of Economy, Dichotomy in Stocks vs Bonds, Issuance and Duration Channel, Commodities vs Equities, Monitoring Recession 
Follow both @prometheusmacro and @Warrenpies on Twitter for more. If you enjoyed this discussion, make sure to let us know in the comments below, Finally, if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe. 

Short Bonds feat. Global Flows

We were joined by @Globalflows to discuss the short-bond trade.
 
Find the show notes below:
Part 1 (0:00 - 25:00) - Forces driving Stocks vs Bonds, State of the US Economy, Balance Sheet Liquidity, Treasuries vs Bills issuance, Sources of Spending, Pricing-in issuance, Buyers of Bonds
Part 2 (25:00 - 49:00) - Yield Curve Dynamics, Forecasts for Inflation and Growth, Fed Funds Future Curve, State of the Cyclical Indicators, Interest Payments vs Expenses, Maturity Wall, Pre-requisites for Recession, Asset Markets & Trade Ideas
Follow both @prometheusmacro and @Globalflows on Twitter for more. If you enjoyed this discussion, make sure to let us know in the comments below, Finally, if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe. 

Andy Constan: Higher For Longer, Short Twoos & Spoos

Today, we're joined by Andy Constan. Andy is the Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, a macroeconomic research firm specializing in Hedge Fund consulting. Andy brings a great deal of experience to the table, having worked at some of the biggest macroeconomic hedge funds- including Bridgewater & Brevan Howard.
Find the show notes below:
Part 1 (0:00-39:00): Etymology of ‘Higher for Longer’, Three D’s, Monetary and Fiscal Policy 2.0, Requirements for ending Inflation and Cutting Demand, The Acts for a Pivot 
Part 2 (39:00-53:00): Curve Dynamics, Nuances of the ‘Recession Trade’, The Wealth Effect, Impact of Tightening and Issuance of Long Duration on Inflation, New State of ‘De-globalization’
Part 3 (53:00-1:32:00): ‘Short Twos & Spoos’ Trade Framework, P/E Decomposition, Drivers of Equity & Fixed Income Performance, Monetary Policy Pricing in Asset Markets, Macro-Factor Decomposition
Follow both @prometheusmacro & @dampedspring on Twitter for more.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!

Episode 8: Adam Butler

After a short break, we’re back with Episode 8 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
As always— we have another exciting guest for you, Adam Butler. Adam is the CIO of ReSolve Asset Management Global and has 15 years of experience in investment management, including 12 years as a Portfolio Manager, and holds both CFA and CAIA charters. Resolve is on the cutting edge of systematic cross-asset macro investing, and this episode is truly a masterclass in all things portfolio structuring and systematic investing. Adam brought a wide and deep expertise to this conversation, with a level of sophistication that you’d be hard-pressed to find across the industry. Every investor will likely have something to learn from this wide-ranging conversation on investing. Aahan and Adam discussed the following:
Systematic Investing
The Beta-Alpha Continuum
Beta And Its Drivers & Harvesting Commodities As An Essential In A Balanced Portfolio
The Importance Of Diversity
Alternative Risk Premia & Their Role In Augmenting Beta
The Importance Of Ensembles: Rubustness & Diversity
Alpha Construction & Non-Linearity
The Current Outlook: A Resilient Economy With Higher Inflation
If you’re interested in creating systematic investing or just looking for structure in terms of how to think about markets, look no further!
Make sure to check out Adam Butler on Twitter @GestaltU and check our Resolve Asset Management for more information on their research and their funds.
 

Episode 7: Andy Constan

We’re back with Episode 7 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another fantastic guest for you-Andy Constan. Andy is the Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, a macroeconomic research firm specializing in Hedge Fund consulting. Andy brings a great deal of experience to the table, having worked at some of the biggest macroeconomic hedge funds- including Bridgewater & Brevan Howard. Andy has also generated some serious alpha this year, using his flow-based approach to time key inflections in asset markets— so this episode is must-listen if you’re trying to navigate today’s volatile markets.
Find the show notes below:
Mechanics (00:00-59:00): Alpha, Discretionary vs. Systematic, Risk Premiums, Idiosyncratic Volatility, Risk vs. Volatility, Flows (Gamma, Leverage, QT), QT Mechanics, Portfolio Rebalance Channel.
Macro (59:00-1:18:00): High Nominal Growth, Higher Than Expected Inflation, Higher Than Expected Terminal Rates For Longer, What Could “Break” In Markets.
Markets (1:18:00- 1:22:00): Hedging Into FOMC & Quarterly Refunding.
For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @dampedspring on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!

Episode 6: Eric Basmajian

We’re back with Episode 6 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another fantastic guest for you- Eric Basmajian. Eric is the founder of EPB Macro- a macro research firm focused on economic cycle analysis. Eric has an excellent mechanistic understanding of the economy and applies a data-driven approach to forecasting the economic cycle. Anyone interested in macro forecasting will have something to learn from this episode. In the episode, Aahan & Eric take the listener on a journey deep into understanding economic cycles and what that understanding brings to light in today’s context. If you ever wanted to understand how economic cycles unfold or where we are in the current cycle— this episode is for you!
Find the show notes below:
(00:00 - 55:00) Mechanics: Framework Overview, Secular Growth Drivers, Debt & Productivity, Cycle Causality, Leading Indicator Framework, Indicator Durability & Persistence, Asset Allocation Tilts & Alpha Overlay
(55:00 - 1:29:00) Macro: Current Backdrop, The Lack Of A Virtuous Cycle Turns Into Viscious Downturn, “Artificial” Production Strength, Growth Dependance On Lagging Indicators, The Fed Could Go Too Fast, Potential Policy Errors Leading To Stagflation
(1:29:00-1:35:00) Markets: Nominal Growth Priced Too High, Stocks vs. Bonds.
Make sure to check our EPB Research. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @epbresearch on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!

Episode 5: Bob Elliott

We’re back with Episode 5 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another exceptional guest for you- Bob Elliott. Bob is Co-Founder and CEO of Unlimited-  a company that uses machine learning to replicate hedge fund strategies in a low-cost ETF format. Before starting Unlimited, Bob spent over a decade at Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest and most successful macro hedge funds, and was integral to building their systematic process. Bob brings a rich mixture of economic analysis, portfolio construction, and systematic thinking to this episode, which is not to be missed! Aahan & Bob cover almost every aspect of macro in their discussion and provide a rigorous framework for thinking about the current environment. If Alpha was ever available on a podcast, it’s this one!
Find the show notes below:
(00:00 - 14:30) Macro Mechanics: A Transactions Based Approach To The Economy, The Long Term Drivers, Debt Levels & Impact
(14:30 - 31:30) Inflation: Secular Drivers, Offsetting Dynamics That Caused Low Inflation, Inflation Inflection, The Nominal Economy, The Classic Inflation Cycle
(31:30 - 48:00) Assets & Portfolio Structuring: Avoiding The Recency Bias in 60/40 Portfolios, Constructing Balanced Portfolios, Alternative Premia, Alpha Decay, Alpha Generation
(48:00 - 53:00) Current Environment: Where We Are, Asset Prices Need To Decline To Tame Inflation, Stocks Rich Verus Bonds, Will The Fed Go Further Than Expected, Bonds & Stocks.
(53:00 -1:16:00 ) Alpha Positions: Shorting Stocks, Relative Value Between Stocks & Bonds, Bond Drivers, Breakevens, Commodities, Alpha Portfolio Pairing
Make sure to check out Bob & Unlimited on their website; they have a very exciting product: Unlimited Funds. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @BobEUnlimited on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!

Episode 4: Darius Dale (Part II)

We’re back with Episode 4 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have the pleasure of once again hosting Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. For those of you who missed our previous conversation, we highly recommend you give it a listen for a better understanding of his sophisticated framework.
While in our last conversation, we focused more on mechanics, today we’re going to spend our time discussing the current state of the economy & the outlook for markets. Aahan & Darius traverse the US macro landscape, discussing everything from the Fed & inflation to the reverse repo facility and portfolio strategy. This is a must-listen for anyone seeking to manage macro risk during one of the most economically volatile periods in history.
Find the show notes below:
(00:00 - 10:40) The Fed, Inflation, & Labor Markets
(10:40 - 17:00) Equity Markets, Treasuries & Stock Bond Correlations
(17:00 - 27:00) Nominal Profits, Right Tail Risks, A Higher Inflation Target
(27:00 - 37:00) Deflation-Dispersion Playbook, Tightening Liquidity, Reverse Repo Surpises
(37:00 - 43:00) Risk Managing CPI, Manging Tail Risk, Adjusting Positioning
Make sure to check out Darius’ firm, 42 Macro; they have a great product: Click here.For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @42macro on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
 

Episode 3: Mr. Blonde

We’re back with Episode 3 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have a formidable guest- Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde is an independent macro strategist who chooses to remain anonymous. With significant experience on both the buy-side & sell-side- his equity-centric research is timely, precise, and pragmatic. This year, he’s done an excellent job expecting the bear market in stocks & the ensuing bear market rally. In a wide-ranging discussion, our Founder, Aahan Menon, helps Mr. Blonde take you through a masterclass in macro-equity investing. This is a must-listen for anyone investing or trading equities in an active fashion. Enjoy!
Find the show notes below:
(00:00 - 37:30) Equity Mechanics: The Profits Cycle, A Data-Driven Approach, Leading Indicators, Market Internals, Dynamic Valuations.
(37:30-58:00) Current Landscape: Pulled-Forward Spending, Inflation Dynamics, Profits & Equities During Inflation, Sector Divergences During Inflation.
(58:00 - 1:09:00) Positioning: Staying Defensive, Long-Short Sector Opportunities, High-Quality Compounders.
Make sure to check out his Substack: Click here.
For more “high-frequency” insights like these, follow both @prometheusmacro & @MrBlonde_macro on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!